Archive for August 28th, 2009
Calculate Your Death Risk over the Next Year!
by Kunal on Aug.28, 2009, under Wierd News
Do you want to know whether you’ll likely be dead next year? Well you can calculate your death risk over the next year online using the death calculator.
Death risk rankings, a new website from Carnegie Mellon, allows you to calculate your death risk rankings over the next year. The website tells you where you rank in terms of dying for up to 66 causes of death. Death risk rankings was developed to provide valuable health information that compares disease rates, risk of death based on ethnicity, and location.
Death risk rankings is also designed to help regulatory policy makers track human health trends. The site was developed through a coordinated effort between the Carnegie Mellon team and the Center for the Study and Improvement of Regulation.
Death risk ranking calculates risk of dying in MicroMorts. You can find predictions about the causes of dying in your locale, in any age group, ethnicity, and by cause. A MicroMort is a one in million chance of death.
Death risk rankings can also be converted to number of deaths, percentage, number of people in each category.
Predictions delivered by death risk rankings is a new and innovative technology, designed by Carnegie Mellon researchers to help regulatory agencies track leading causes of death across the globe. In addition to death risk rankings, Carnegie Mellon is working to multiple interactive tools “in areas traffic safety, mortality risk, vehicle technology, and hospital admissions.”
Below is some excerpt from their site:
The forecasts for beyond one year are calculated using a “survival” function. For example, the forecast for a 40-year old male in the US to live another five years is 14,554 MicroMorts (i.e, about a 1.5% chance of dying within the forecast period). The calculation uses MicroMorts for each of the successive five years,. The number of MicroMorts for a 40-year old is 2,497, meaning that for each 1,000,000 40-year olds, on average 1,000,000 – 2,497 = 999,997,503 survive. The number of MicroMorts for the second year is 2,706, so the number of people expected to survive for two years is 999,997, 503 x (1,000,000 – 2,706) / 1,000,000. Using the MicroMorts from the table, we can see that the five-year forecast is calculated as
(1,000,000 – 2,497)
x ((1,000,000 – 2,706)/1,000,000)
x ((1,000,000 – 2,920)/1,000,000)
x ((1,000,000 – 3,143)/1,000,000)
((1,000,000 – 3,371)/1,000,000) = 14,552
Age MicroMorts
40 2,497
41 2,706
42 2,920
43 3,143
Fake Dutch ‘moon rock’ revealed
by Kunal on Aug.28, 2009, under News, Science, Wierd News
A treasured piece at the Dutch national museum – a supposed moon rock from the first manned lunar landing – is nothing more than petrified wood, curators say.
It was given to former Prime Minister Willem Drees during a goodwill tour by the three Apollo-11 astronauts shortly after their moon mission in 1969.
When Mr Drees died, the rock went on display at the Amsterdam museum.
At one point it was insured for around $500,000 (£308,000), but tests have proved it was not the genuine article.
The Rijksmuseum, which is perhaps better known for paintings by artists such as Rembrandt, says it will keep the piece as a curiosity.
"It’s a good story, with some questions that are still unanswered," Xandra van Gelder, who oversaw the investigation that proved the piece was a fake, was quoted as saying by the Associated Press news agency.
"We can laugh about it."
The "rock" had originally been been vetted through a phone call to Nasa, she added.
The US agency gave moon rocks to more than 100 countries following lunar missions in the 1970s.
US officials said they had no explanation for the Dutch discovery.
